中国地质大学学报(社会科学版）

加快促进绿色发展是实现我国实体经济高质量发展的应有之义，同时制造业智能化与服务化是产业组织方式重构的重要引擎。如何以智能化、服务化为关键变量促进区域制造业绿色发展是具有研究意义的重要课题。结合市场与政府双重外部条件，以2012—2017年我国各省市为案例，运用动态QCA方法，基于组态视角探讨制造业智能化、服务化影响区域制造业绿色发展的联动效应与路径选择。组态视角与动态QCA方法的应用突破以往单变量分析的局限性，通过构建多维解释框架，更好地揭示系统变量间的复杂因果关系。研究发现：智能化、服务化与技术、市场、制度等前因条件均不能单独作为实现区域制造业绿色发展高效率的条件；高区域绿色全要素生产率存在4个条件组态、3类组态路径，其中3种组态类型分别为“智能化-技术增强型”“服务化-技术与市场增强型”以及“智能化与服务化联动型”；各条件组态对区域制造业绿色发展的影响存在明显的时间和地区效应；且3种组态路径所能解释的案例区域分布不同，整体上主要分布在东部、东北地区，而西部地区覆盖度最低。研究结论有助于深化对促进区域制造业绿色发展背后多重因素之间相互作用的理解，并为各地政府因地制宜以智能化、服务化为关键变量，促进区域制造业绿色发展提供重要启示。

Accelerating green development is the proper meaning of realizing the high-quality development of China's real economy. The intelligence and servitization of the manufacturing industry is an important engine for the reconstruction of industrial organization. How to utilize intelligence and servitization as key variables to promote the green development of regional manufacturing is a significant topic worthy of research. Incorporating dual external conditions of the market and the government, this study takes Chinese provinces and cities from 2012 to 2017 as cases and employs the dynamic Qualitative Comparative Analysis(QCA) method to explore the synergistic effects and pathway choices of manufacturing intellectualization and servitization on the green development of regional manufacturing from a configurational perspective. The application of the configurational perspective and dynamic QCA method overcomes the limitations of previous single-variable analyses by constructing a multidimensional explanatory framework, thereby better revealing the complex causal relationships among systemic variables. The research finds that the antecedents such as intelligence, servitization, technology, market, and system cannot be used alone as the conditions for realizing the high efficiency of the green development of the regional manufacturing industry. There are four conditional configurations and three types of configuration paths for high regional green total factor productivity, of which the three configuration types are “intelligence-technology-enhanced”,“ service-oriented-technologymarket-enhanced”, and “intelligent and service-oriented linkage”. The influence of each condition configuration on the green development of regional manufacturing exhibits significant temporal and regional effects.Moreover, the case regions explained by the three configurational pathways differ in distribution, with overall coverage primarily concentrated in eastern and northeastern China, while western China has the lowest coverage. The research conclusions contribute to a deeper understanding of the interactions among multiple factors behind promoting the green development of regional manufacturing and provide important insights for local governments to tailor intelligence and servitization as key variables according to local conditions to advance the green development of regional manufacturing.