| 180 | 0 | 34 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
基础设施是兼具公共性、通用性和基础性的重大工程，也是内含巨大隐含碳的固定资产。面对日益趋紧的碳排放空间约束，合理控制基础设施隐含碳的增长对于碳减排具有重要意义。本文基于存量和增量的双重视角，以公路和电力基础设施为例对1993—2023年间我国基础设施隐含碳进行了测算分解，并对基础设施隐含碳的演化情景进行了模拟分析。结果表明，2023年我国公路和电力基础设施隐含碳的存量水平约为45.34亿～56.77亿吨。基础设施隐含碳的增量分解显示，资本规模、物质规模和产出规模是隐含碳的主要促增因素，资本碳强度和物质强度则是主要促降因素。且相较电力基础设施，规模因素和强度因素对于公路基础设施隐含碳的影响更大。进一步研究发现，在不同情景中，2030年前基础设施隐含碳的存量水平将逐年上涨，而隐含碳的增量演变路径存在较大差异。在考虑低碳科技创新的技术改进情景中，基础设施隐含碳的增量在2030年前将稳步下降，但在其他情景中将持续上涨。本文的研究对于统筹基础设施的存量和增量，推进基础设施低碳发展具有启示意义。
Abstract：Infrastructures are significant engineering characterized by public, universal, and foundational features. They are also fixed assets that contain substantial embodied carbon emissions. Faced with increasingly stringent constraints on carbon emissions, reasonable control of embodied carbon growth in infrastructure is of significant importance for carbon reduction. This article assesses and decomposes the carbon stocks and carbon increments of China's infrastructures during 1993—2023, taking the road and power infrastructure as examples. The evolution scenarios of carbon stocks and carbon increments are simulated and analyzed. The results indicate that: Firstly, China's road and power infrastructures are estimated to embody a carbon stock of approximately 4. 534 billion to 5. 677 billion tons in 2023. The capital scale, material scale, and output scale are the main factors that drive the carbon increments up in infrastructures, while the driving down factors are capital carbon intensity and material intensity. Secondly, compared with power infrastructures, both the scale and intensity factors have more significant impacts on the changes in road infrastructures' carbon stocks. Thirdly, under different scenarios, infrastructure-related carbon stock in China is expected to exhibit a sustained upward trend through 2030. However, the evolution paths of carbon increments vary significantly. Under the scenario considering technological improvements related to new infrastructure development and low-carbon technology innovation, the carbon increments in infrastructures are projected to decline steadily before 2030. While in other scenarios, the carbon increments will continue to grow. The findings of this paper provide important insights for balancing the stock and increment of infrastructure and promoting low-carbon development of infrastructure.
[1]Esfahani,H.S.,M.T.Ramírez.Institutions,infrastructure,and economic growth[J].Journal of Development Economics,2003(2).
[2]Dai,J.,R.Alvarado,S.Ali,et al.Transport infrastructure,economic growth,and transport CO_2 emissions nexus:Does green energy consumption in the transport sector matter?[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2023(14).
[3]唐葆君,许沛昀,于芳,等.电力基础设施碳排放核算及减排潜力评估——以特高压交流工程为例[J].煤炭经济研究,2024(1).
[4]刘建国,朱跃中,田智宇.“碳中和”目标下我国交通脱碳路径研究[J].中国能源,2021(5).
[5]Li,Y.,X.Yang,E.Du,et al.A review on carbon emission accounting approaches for the electricity power industry[J].Applied Energy,2024,359.
[6]朱于珂,宋依纯.考虑数字经济的城市能源回弹效应研究:经验测算与形成机制[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2025(2).
[7]Bumby,S.,E.Druzhinina,R.Feraldi,et al.Life cycle assessment of overhead and underground primary power distribution[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2010(14).
[8]张金喜,苏词,王超,等.道路基础设施建设中的节能减排问题及技术综述[J].北京工业大学学报,2022(3).
[9]白静.中国基础设施隐含碳时空变化特征及驱动因素研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2019.
[10]Jia,S.,M.Liu.Embodied GHG emissions of high speed rail stations:Quantification,data-driven prediction and cost-benefit analysis[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2022,366.
[11]Ge,Z.,Y.Geng,W.Wei,et al.Embodied carbon emissions induced by the construction of hydropower infrastructure in China[J].Energy Policy,2023,173.
[12]潘家华.碳中和:需要颠覆性技术创新和发展范式转型[J].三峡大学学报(人文社会科学版),2022(1).
[13]Suwondo,R.,M.Keintjem,A.D.Nataadmadja,et al.Towards greener highway infrastructure:Evaluating the embodied carbon and cost efficiency of rigid pavement designs[J].Innovative Infrastructure Solutions,2024(12).
[14]Han,Y.,H.Li,J.Liu,et al.Life cycle carbon emissions from road infrastructure in China:A region-level analysis[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Enviromnent,2023,115.
[15]Zhao,Y.,X.Duan,M.Yu.Calculating carbon emissions and selecting carbon peak scheme for infrastructure construction in Liaoning Province,China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2023,420.
[16]杜传忠,曹雅慧,孟天赐.工业智能化影响中国工业绿色转型:机制与效应[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2025(3).
[17]Muller,D.B.,G.Liu,A.N.Løvik,et al.Carbon emissions of infrastructure development[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2013(20).
[18]Wei,W.,J.Li,B.Chen,et al.Embodied greenhouse gas emissions from building China's large-scale power transmission infrastructure[J].Nature Sustainability,2021(8).
[19]Kalt,G.,P.Thunshirn,D.Wiedenhofer,et al.Material stocks in global electricity infrastructures—An empirical analysis of the power sector's stock-flow-service nexus[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2021,173.
[20]Na,H.,Z.Qiu,J.Sun,et al.Revealing cradle-to-gate CO_2 emissions for steel product producing by different technological pathways based on material flow analysis[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2024,203.
[21]Huang,C.,J.Han,W.Q.Chen.Changing patterns and determinants of infrastructures'material stocks in Chinese cities[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2017,123.
[22]李国昊,肖进.中国电力部门脱碳的驱动因素变化:基于碳交易机制的视角[J].系统工程理论与实践,2023(8).
[23]岳婷,周静,龙如银,等.中国城市居民生活碳排放因素分解与减碳潜力分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2024(12).
[24]张贵,程一诺,冯奎.京津冀交通一体化高质量建设与区域经济发展耦合研究[J].区域经济评论,2025(5).
[25]Balaguera,A.,G.I.Carvajal,J.Alberti,et al.Life cycle assessment of road construction alternative materials,a literature review[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2018,132.
[26]李钢,廖建辉.基于碳资本存量的碳排放权分配方案[J].中国社会科学,2015(7).
[27]Han,J.,W.N.Xiang.Analysis of material stock accumulation in China's infrastructure and its regional disparity[J].Sustainability Science,2013(8).
[28]Li,F.,Z.Ye,X.Xiao,et al.Material stocks and flows of power infrastructure development in China[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2020,160.
[29]刘立涛,张艳,沈镭,等.水泥生产的碳排放因子研究进展[J].资源科学,2014(1).
[30]沈镭,赵建安,王礼茂,等.中国水泥生产过程碳排放因子测算与评估[J].科学通报,2016(26).
[31]章毅,刘伟杰.建设期沥青混凝土路面能耗与碳排放分析[J].公路,2015(1).
[32]Liu,T.,R.Zhao,Z.Xie,et al.Carbon emissions from accumulated stock of building materials in China[J].Building and Environment,2023,240.
[33]Yu,B.,Q.Chen,N.Li,et al.Life cycle assessment of urban road networks:Quantifying carbon footprints and forecasting future material stocks[J].Construction and Building Materials,2024,428.
[34]邹安全,罗杏玲,全春光.基于EIO~LCA的钢铁产品生命周期碳排放研究[J].管理世界,2013(12).
[35]Hasanbeigi,A.,M.Arens,J.C.R.Cardenas,et al.Comparison of carbon dioxide emissions intensity of steel production in China,Germany,Mexico,and the United States[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2016,113.
[36]Kuckshinrichs,W.,P.Zapp,W.R.Poganietz.CO_2 emissions of global metal-industries,the case of copper[J].Applied Energy,2007(7-8).
[37]Chen,J.,Z.Wang,Y.Wu,et al.Environmental benefits of secondary copper from primary copper based on life cycle assessment in China[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2019,146.
[38]Dong,D.,L.van Oers,A.Tukker,et al.Assessing the future environmental impacts of copper production in China,implications of the energy transition[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2020,274.
[39]武娟妮,万红艳,陈伟强,等.中国原生铝工业的能耗与温室气体排放核算[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2010(3).
[40]张文娟,李会泉,陈波,等.中国原铝冶炼行业温室气体排放模型[J].环境科学研究,2013(10).
[41]廖茂林,许召元,胡翠,等.基础设施投资是否还能促进经济增长?——基于1994—2016年省际面板数据的实证检验[J].管理世界,2018(5).
[42]邵帅,张曦,赵兴荣.中国制造业碳排放的经验分解与达峰路径——广义迪氏指数分解和动态情景分析[J].中国工业经济,2017(3).
[43]张超,王韬,陈伟强,等.中国钢铁长期需求模拟及产能过剩态势评估[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018(10).
[44]Vaninsky,A.Factorial decomposition of CO_2 emissions:A generalized divisia index approach[J].Energy Economics,2014,45.
[45]胡李鹏,樊纲,徐建国.中国基础设施存量的再测算[J].经济研究,2016(8).
[46]黄群慧.中国的工业化进程:阶段、特征与前景[J].经济与管理,2013(7).
[47]中国社会科学院宏观经济研究中心课题组.未来15年中国经济增长潜力与“十四五”时期经济社会发展主要目标及指标研究[J].中国工业经济,2020(4).
[48]汪旭颖,李冰,吕晨,等.中国钢铁行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究[J].环境科学研究,2022(2).
[49]贺晋瑜,何捷,王郁涛,等.中国水泥行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究[J].环境科学研究,2022(2).
[50]白玫.中国水泥工业碳达峰、碳中和实现路径研究[J].价格理论与实践,2021(4).
[51]於世为,胡星,何露,等.新型能源体系的内涵诠释、逻辑必然与要素解析[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2025(4).
[52]郎慧慧.论新质生产力的大生态观[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2025(1).
[53]林伯强,刘希颖.中国城市化阶段的碳排放:影响因素和减排策略[J].经济研究,2010(8).
[54]朱永彬,王铮,庞丽,等.基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测[J].地理学报,2009(8).
(1)本文认为，广义上的碳效用泛指碳资产所带来的经济社会效益。狭义上，碳效用可以理解为沉淀有大量隐含碳的基础设施、房屋建筑等固态资产所带来的经济和服务效益（如经济产出以及运输、住房等服务供给）。在具体研究中，可以采用单位隐含碳所对应的GDP、公共服务供给等指标进行测度。
(2)这主要是基于两个考虑：其一，完善健全的交通和电力网络共同构成了经济系统的骨架，是需要优先发展的关键性基础设施[1][24]；其二，公路和电力基础设施的建设与维护过程以消耗大量碳密集型物质（如钢铁、水泥、铝材等）为特征[11][13]，具有较强的代表性与典型性。
(1)公路设施规模以公路里程和路面宽度相乘所得的公路面积衡量。电力设施规模的衡量方式因类而异，发电站和变电站以装机总量衡量，交/直流输电线路则以线路里程长度衡量。
(1)即历年隐含碳的增量相对于1997年隐含碳的增量的变化值。
(2)电力行业主要指电力生产业和电力供应业；公路行业指公路运输业。
(1)限于篇幅，未展示具体结果，留存备索。
(1)这是政策发展情景和技术改进情景充分考虑了政策约束和技术进步的双重影响，能够更准确地反映基础设施隐含碳的增量演变路径。
基本信息:
DOI：10.16493/j.cnki.42-1627/c.20260113.002
中图分类号:X322;F542;F426.61
引用信息:
[1]占妍泓,周炯梁,孙传旺.中国基础设施隐含碳的动因识别与演化模拟——以公路和电力基础设施为例[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2026,26(01):102-121.DOI:10.16493/j.cnki.42-1627/c.20260113.002.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金青年学生基础研究项目“数字基础设施促进新能源产业高质量发展的机理研究和效应评估”（723B2021）; 国家社会科学基金重大项目“能源供给侧与需求侧协同绿色低碳发展机制与实现路径研究”（21&ZD109）
2026-01-14
2026-01-14
2026-01-14