中国地质大学学报(社会科学版）

基于农地利用的6个主要方面的碳源,测算了我国1993—2008年农地利用碳排放量。发现自1993年以来我国农地碳排放处于阶段性的上升趋势。进一步通过Kaya恒等式的合理变形对碳排放的影响因素进行分解,结果表明,效率因素和结构因素对碳排放量具有一定的抑制作用,但效果不够显著且波动性较强。与1993年相比,效率、结构因素分别实现了6.11%和26.62%的碳减排,而规模因素则对农地碳排放具有较强推动作用,产生了121.65%的碳增量。最后,据此提出促进农地利用减排的政策建议。

This research is based on six kinds of main carbon sources of agricultural land utilization.By calculating China's carbon emission on agricultural land utilization from 1993 to 2008,this paper finds that agricultural land carbon emission in China has been increasing step by step since then on.When all the factors affecting the carbon emission are decomposed by reasonable conversion of Kaya equation,the result shows that the factors of efficiency and structure can restrain the carbon emission,but the effect is not obvious and fluctuates drastically.Compared with those in 1993,in 2008 the efficiency factor cut 6.11% carbon emission and the structure factor cut 26.62%.In contrast,the scale factor played an active role in agricultural land carbon emission,which increased 121.65% carbon emission.According to the above situation,the paper puts forward some advices on the policy of carbon emission reduction on agricultural land utilization.